The nightmare.
“What? One letter? All Six of them on the same letter? How the hell?”
Then I woke up. Reality check. It isn’t April. Calm down.
*Sense-making starts now*
A couple of nights ago, I had a dream that I had been rejected from all 6 Ivy League colleges that I had applied to. I got the news in one e-mail. Doesn’t make any sense. Then again, most dreams don’t. I also have a vague memory that, in the dream, I had been rejected from all but 1 college to which I had applied. My subconscious is going crazy.
I don’t have to face any of this till April, when colleges deliver their verdicts to applicants. And I’m pretty calm these days, at least when awake. As long as I can keep the crazy to my dreams, till April, I’ll be ok.
Still, I needed to give myself something to hold onto. Being rejected from that many places in one dream does things to a person. So, inspired by that day’s Math class, I decided to calculate the expected number of Ivy’s I’ll get into.
*Stats lecture starts now. But even if that’s not your thing, please read on*
My data:
6. The number of Ivy League Colleges I applied to (Dartmouth Cornell miss hain. They can’t even count 4 properly).
9. The average acceptance rate of an Ivy League college. I was at school so I had to estimate, but I don’t think the actual number would be much higher. (I made the convenient assumption that I was an average student, even though in reality, acceptances rate vary drastically with external factors such as nationality and financial aid options)
So, using the expectation formula used in probability distribution charts, I determined that the grand total of Ivy’s I can expect to get into is:
0.38
Yes. 0.38. This is obviously a very raw figure and is as accurate as it is re-assuring. But it’s something. Different ways of translating this figure:
- If I were applying to 18 Ivy’s, I could expect to get into 1.15.
- If I apply to these 6 Ivy’s 3 years in a row, I could expect to get into 1.15 colleges.
- If I get into 1, I should consider myself lucky because the average student tends to get rejected from all 6.
Obviously I’d consider myself lucky anyway, but even my most modest self knows that I’m better than the average student. But then again I’m Pakistani. In conclusion, I know my chances of getting into an Ivy are much greater than 0.38. Perhaps even greater than 0.39.
College verdicts + Nightmares + Statistics = I’m going crazy
10 weeks to April the 1st. Keep Holding on.